Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Body Count Global avoidable mortality since 1950 2008 lecture
Body Count Global avoidable mortality since 1950 2008 lecture
BODY COUNT. Global avoidable mortality since 1950 (2008 lecture)– Dr Gideon Polya
This is a detailed set of notes for a July 2008 lecture in Melbourne on the book “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” by Gideon Polya (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007). For further details of the book see:
http://mwcnews.net/Gideon-Polya and http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ .
i. Definition. For a country in a given period, excess death (avoidable death, avoidable mortality, excess mortality, deaths that should not have happened) is the difference between the actual deaths in a country and the deaths expected for a peaceful, decently governed country with the same demographics.
ii. Methodology. UN Population Division provides detailed demographic data for essentially every country in the world since 1950 – population, death rate, birth rate, population breakdown, under-5 infant mortality rate.
(a) Using this data, for each country in pentades (5 year periods) from 1950-2005 and then sum for these countries, regions and the World for this period one can calculate Total Deaths (Mortality, MORT), Under-5 infant deaths (Infant Mortality, IM) and Avoidable deaths (Excess Mortality, EM) (see (ix), Tables 1 and 2).
(b) While calculation of Mortality and Infant Mortality is straightforward arithmetic, estimation of Excess Deaths (Actual Deaths minus Expected Deaths for a decently-run society with the same demographics) involves a complicated estimation of the baseline of Expected Deaths.
(c ) Under-5 Infant deaths are about 0.7 of Excess Deaths for impoverished Third World countries – this allowing ready rough estimation of Excess Deaths for such countries by laypersons from UNICEF and UN Population Division data for infant mortality (see: “Layperson’s Guide to Counting Iraq Deaths”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/5872/26/ ).
iii. Comparisons. In order to compare Mortality, Infant Mortality and Excess Mortality in the period 1950-2005 it is necessary to normalize the data by dividing by the populations involved. There are various ways in which this can be done – in Table 1 I have used 1950-2005 Mortality/2005 population = “MORT/POP (%); 1950-2005 Excess Mortality/2005 Population = EM/POP (%); and 1950-2005 Infant Mortality/ 2005 Population = IM/POP (%).
(a) 1950-2005 Mortality/2005 population = MORT/POP (%) is roughly the same for all regions (range 31-55%; World average 42%). We all have to die.
(b) 1950-2005 Excess Mortality/2005 Population = EM/POP (%) increases from 2.7% (Overseas Europe = North America, Australasia and
(c) Notable country data:
(d) 1950-2005 Infant Mortality/ 2005 Population = IM/POP (%) increases from 1.5% (Overseas Europe) to 27.3% (Non-Arab Africa); Europe average 2.2%, non—Europe average 15.9%, World average 13.6%; the independently estimated infant mortality data closely reflect the excess mortality data.
(e) The 1950-2005 excess mortality [and independently estimated 1950-2005 under-5 infant mortality data in square brackets] totals are 1,303 million [878 million] (the World); 1,248 million [853 million] (the non-European World]; 55 million [25 million] (the European World); and 0.6 BILLION [0.4 BILLION] (the Muslim World) – a Third World Holocaust and a Muslim Holocaust 100 times greater than the World War 2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million dead, 1 in 6 dying from deprivation) or the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengali Holocaust, the man-made 1943-1945 Bengal Famine in which the British deliberately starved 6-7 million Indians to death in Bengal and the adjoining provinces of Assam, Orissa and Bihar (see the January 2008 BBC broadcast involving me, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open2.net/thingsweforgot/bengalfamine_programme.html ).
(f) These estimates are resolutely ignored by Mainstream media, politicians and academia in a continuing process of holocaust ignoring i.e. functional holocaust denial.
iv. Occupation and mass avoidable mortality. Humans have evolved altruism towards the young in family groups (as cogently discussed in “The Selfish Gene” by Richard Dawkins) but that altruism falls off as you move to humans further away from family and tribe. Indeed our chimpanzee cousins perpetrate horrific attacks on fellow chimpanzees violating their tribal territory. As the data below indicates, Foreign Occupation is a major contributor to avoidable mortality – foreign rulers do not have the same intrinsic regard for their conquered subjects as indigenous rulers.
The horrific consequences of the pre-Invasion Sanctions on Iraqi infant mortality are revealed by UN Population Division data for
The summary d
France [3.275m/60.711m = 5.4%] - Algeria [7.167m/32.877m =21.8%], Benin [3.267m/7.103m = 46.0%], Burkina Faso [6.810m/13.798m = 49.4%], Cambodia* [5.852m/14.825m = 39.5%], Cameroon* [6.669m/16.564m = 40.3%], Central African Republic [2.274m/3.962m =57.4%], Chad [5.085m/9.117m = 55.8%], Comoros [0.204m/0.812m =25.1%], Congo (Brazzaville) [1.085m/3.921m = 27.7%], Côte d’Ivoire [6.953m/17.165m = 40.5%], Djibouti [0.265m/0.721m = 36.8%], Egypt* [19.818m/74.878m = 26.5%], French Guiana [0.010m/0.187m = 5.3%], French Polynesia [0.018m/0.252m = 7.1%], Gabon [0.504m/1.375m = 36.7%], Guadeloupe [0.025m/0.446m = 5.6%], Guinea [5.185m/8.788m = 59.0%], Haiti* [4.089m/8.549m = 47.9%], Laos* [2.653m/5.918m = 44.8%], Madagascar [7.098m/18.409m = 38.6%], Mali [6.808m/13.829m = 49.2%], Martinique [0.022m/0.397m = 5.5%], Mauritania [1.294m/3.069m = 42.2%], Mauritius [0.064m/1.244m = 5.18], Morocco* [8.202m/31.564m = 26.0%], New Caledonia [0.017m/0.237m = 7.2%], Niger [6.558m/12.873m = 50.9%], Réunion [0.047m/0.777m = 6.0%], Senegal [4.457m/9.393m = 47.5%], Syria* [2.198m/18.650m = 11.8%], Togo [1.950m/5.129m = 38.0%], Tunisia [1.582m/10.042m =15.8%], Vanu
Russia [11.897m/141.553m = 8.4%] - Afghanistan [16.609m/25.971m = 64.0%], Armenia [0.091m/3.043m = 3.0%], Azerbaijan [0.428m/8.527m = 5.0%], Belarus [0.375m/9.809m = 3.8%], Bulgaria [0.769m/7.763m = 9.9%], Czech Republic [1.087m/10.216m = 10.6%], Estonia [0.166m/1.294m = 12.8%], Georgia [0.281m/5.026m = 5.6%], Hungary [1.363m/9.784m = 13.9%], Kazakhstan [0.983m/15.364m = 6.4%], Kyrgyzstan [1.041m/5.278m = 19.7%], L
0.672m/2.032m = 33.1%
UK [4.411m/59.598m = 7.4%] - Afghanistan* [16.609m/25.971m = 64.0%], Bahamas [0.007m/0.321m = 2.3%], Bahrain [0.054m/0.754m = 7.2%], Bangladesh* [51.196m/152.593m = 33.6%], Barbados [0.015m/0.272m = 5.5%], Belize [0.014m/0.266m = 5.3%], Bhutan [0.908m/2.392m = 38.0%], Botswana [0.443m/1.801m = 24.6%], Brunei [0.020m/0.374m = 5.3%], Cameroon* [6.669m/16.564m = 40.3%], Cyprus [0.054m/0.813m = 6.6%]; Egypt* [19.818m/74.878m = 26.5%], Eritrea* [1.757m/4.456m = 39.4%], Ethiopia [36.133m/74.189m = 48.7%], Fiji [0.054m/0.854m = 6.3%], Gambia [0.606m/1.499m = 47.6%], Ghana [6.089m/21.833m = 27.9%], Greece* [0.027m/10.978m = 0.2%], Grenada* [0.018m/0.121m = 14.9%], Guyana [0.086m/0.768m = 11.2%], Hong Kong [0.125m/7.182m = 1.7%], India [351.900m/1096.917m = 32.1%], Iraq* [5.283m/26.555m = 19.9%], Israel [0.095m/6.685 = 1.4%], Jamaica [0.245m/2.701m =9.1%], Jor
US [8.455m/300.038m = 2.8%] - Afghanistan* [16.609m/25.971m = 64.0%], Cambodia* [5.852m/14.825m = 39.5%], Dominican Republic [0.806m/8.998m = 9.0%], Feder
This catalogue of post-1950 avoidable mortality due to violent occupation can be roughly converted to post-1950 under-5 infant mortality by multiplying by a factor of about 0.7 (the ratio of post-1950 under-5 infant mortality to post-1950 avoidable mortality for the
v. Human mortality and avoidable mortality throughout history. “Body Count” is a very useful resource for students and scholars – it contains a very detailed summary of the history of every country in the world since neolithic times together with brief details of major mortality events (e.g. the death tolls from the Black Death, major wars and famines, and the European conquest of other continents. Thus the avoidable deaths associated with the British occupation of
vi. Australian history of genocide. When Australians think of
1. 18th-19th century Aboriginal Genocide (the Indigenous Aboriginal population dropped from about 1 million to 0.1 million in the first century after invasion in 1788).
2. Tasmanian Aboriginal Genocide (the “full-blood” Indigenous population dropped from 6,000 to zero in 1803-1776; however there are several thousand “mixed race” decen
3. British-effected Indian Genocide (post-invasion excess deaths 0.6 BILLION, 1757-1837; 0.5 BILLION, 1837-1901 under Queen
4. European-effected Chinese Genocide (10-100 million deaths in the European imperialism-driven Tai Ping rebellion period;
5. Maori Genocide (Maori population dropped from 0.1-0.2 million in 1800 to 42,000 in 1893; Australia was involved in the 19th century Maori wars).
6. African Genocide (scores of million perished over 5 centuries of European slavery and colonialism; Australians participated in the Su
7. Pacific Genocide (there was a catastrophic population decline due to introduced disease and slavery; thus 40,000 Fijians died from measles out of a population of 150,000 in 1876; “blackbirding” slavery was conducted by Australians in the late 19th century).
8. Boer (Afrikaaner) Genocide (1899-1902; 28,000 Afrikaaner women and children died in British concentration camps; Australians participated in the Boer War as immortalized in the movie “Breaker Morant”).
9. Armenian Genocide (1.5 million killed; the Australian invasion of Gallipoli as part of an Anglo-French force in 1915 helped to precipitate this atrocity; indeed April 24 is Armenian Genocide Day and April 25 is the day of the Australia invasion in 1915 and also a sacred war dead remembrance day for Australians and New Zealanders – it is called Anzac Day after the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) which stormed ashore on that first Anzac Day at Gallipoli in 1915).
10. Bengali Genocide (6-7 million perished in the “forgotten” man-made Bengal Famine atrocity in Bengal and adjoining provinces in British India, 1943-1945; Australians were there and indeed the Governor of Bengal in 1944 was an Australian R.G. Casey).
11. British post-1950 Third World Genocide (1950-2005 excess deaths in countries subject to British occupation as a major occupier in the post-war era totalled 727 million; Australia has the same Head of State as the UK and continues to be a loyal military ally of the UK in Occupied Iraq and Occupied Afghanistan).
12. US post-1950 Third World Genocide (1950-2005 excess deaths in countries subject to US occupation as a major occupier in the post-war era totalled 82 million; Australia participated in all post-1950 US Asian Wars in Korea, Indo-China, Iraq and Afghanistan with Indigenous Asian excess deaths now totalling 25 million).
13. Australian Colonial Genocide (1950-2005 excess deaths in countries subject to Australian occupation as a major occupier in the post-war era, namely Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands totalled 2.1 million).
14. 20th century Aboriginal Genocide (total excess deaths clearly of the order of 1million; 0.1 million Stolen Generations Aboriginal children forcibly removed from their Mothers in the 19th and 20th centuries; excess deaths in the 11 years of the Bush-ite Coalition Government totalled 90,000 for 1996-2007).
The following Australian genocide involvements in this catalogue of horrors are ONGOING.
15. Palestinian Genocide (post-1967 excess deaths 0.3 million, post-1967 under-5 infant deaths 0.2 million and 7 million refugees; with bi-partisan agreement Australia provides diplomatic, financial and haven support for Israeli state terrorism – even when directed against tens of thousands of Australian citizens as in Lebanon in mid-2006 - and up to life imprisonment for anyone giving financial support to the Hamas Party that overwhelmingly won the 2006 Occupied Palestinian elections).
16. Iraqi Genocide (4 million excess deaths 1990-2008; 2 million post-invasion excess deaths, 0.6 million post-invasion under-5 infant deaths and 4.5 million refugees).
17. Afghan Genocide (3-7 million post-invasion excess deaths, 2.3 million post-invasion under-5 infant and 4 million refugees;
18. Ongoing Aboriginal Genocide (9,000 excess deaths annually; 90,000 excess deaths in the last 11 years of Bush-ite Coalition rule).
19. Biofuel Genocide (16 million die avoidably each year but this is increasingly biofuel-impacted as the legislatively-mandated US, UK and EU biofuel perversion helps force up global food prices; Australia is a major sugar cane grower and sugar exporter with 60% of sugar going to bioethanol production worldwide; Australia has biofuel-promoting legislation and is a major canola grower, this being a major source for biodiesel).
20. Climate Genocide (16 million die avoidably each year already from deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease; Professor James Lovelock FRS says that over 6 million will perish this century die to unaddressed climate change; on a per capita basis Australia is among the very worst greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters – in terms of 2004 figures for “fossil fuel-derived annual per capita CO2 pollution” Australia is about 40 times worse than India and 160 times worse than Bangladesh if you include Australia’s world number 1 coal exports). Current Labor Federal Government commitment to reduce greenhouse-gas pollution by "60% by 2050" while supporting coal exports actually means increasing Australias world-leading greenhouse-gas pollution from fossil fuel consumption and exports by more than 50% by 2050 (from linear extrapolation of US Energy Information Administration data).
Yet politically correct racist
I have done my duty as an Australian and World citizen by making a formal complaint to the International Criminal Court over Australian Government involvement in Aboriginal Genocide, Iraqi Genocide, Afghan Genocide and Climate Genocide (see: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html ).
vii. Solutions
Poor but well governed countries like Cuba (infant mortality lower than that in the US despite 30-fold lower annual per capita income) provide hope that sensibly focussed investment (e.g. funded by an “economic efficiency credits scheme” to reward high efficiency countries such as Bangladesh), good governance, high female literacy and good primary health care can deliver very low avoidable mortality and thence, paradoxically, lowered population growth.
The continuing, horrendous global avoidable mortality is fundamentally due to violence, deprivation, disease and lying. We are one species confined to one planet and we revel in the richness of nature and human cultural diversity. The peace and cooperative community we commonly experience at the level of village, town, city and nation should apply internationally throughout Spaceship Earth. Intolerance of dishonesty, bigotry and violence, respect for human rights, international law Available link for download
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